The Reason I Hope All These Ukrainian Vehicles Are Being Destroyed
Since the start of its long-awaited counteroffensive on Monday, June 5, the Ukrainian military’s communications apparatus has gone quiet. This leaves online only Russian propaganda outlets, and the picture they have painted this week is not pretty. Russian telegram channels have been jumping over each other this week posting pictures of mangled armored vehicles, many of which appear to be state-of-the-art European and American materiel.
In response to all these photos, ‘armchair generals’ have taken to social media to share how poor tactics by the Ukrainians appear to be leading to avoidable losses of invaluable equipment. See below a recent photo published by Russia purporting to show a bunched up group of damaged / destroyed Leopard Tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles, expensive Western donations destroyed prior to Russia’s first line of defense.
It has been an exhausting week to be a Ukraine supporter, there has been insignificant progress and significant losses. I can only hope there’s more going on.
Here’s what I’m hoping is happening: DECOYS!
- There is historical precedent: Prior to D-Day in 1944, the Germans knew that the Allies were going to attack the Atlantic Wall, but they didn’t know when or where. To trick the Germans, Operation Fortitude South was conceived, in which large numbers of dummy tanks and boats were built and stationed in England directly across from the Pas-de-Calais, instead of Normandy. This fake army was made from inflatables, wood, scaffolding tube, 40 gallon jugs, and more cheap materials.
- Ukraine has already utilized decoys: We’ve seen some uses of decoy missiles and decoy artillery systems, even decoy tanks! The Czech company Inflatech told local media that it believes more than a third of the HIMARS units claimed to have been destroyed by Russian forces were actually inflatable decoys produced by the company.
So, we know that Ukraine has the ability and the means to deploy scores of decoys, but what about the hundreds of videos Russia has published this week of Ukrainian vehicle convoys being taken out by drones, mines, and artillery?
Ukraine would have to develop convincing mobile decoys. It seems simple enough to build cheap replicas of Ukrainian vehicles and remotely drive them around, harmlessly setting off mines and attracting Russian fire or reserves.
In the type of frontal assault that Ukraine is attempting, enemy artillery rely on drones and forward observers with binoculars for targeting. Russian drone cameras are famously terrible and would hardly be able to tell the difference between an armored convoy and a bunch of dummies being remote-controlled or towed with clear ropes.
All the while, Ukrainian troops could be safely behind the front lines observing enemy movements to adjust artillery and plan real assaults. Russian propaganda trolls would be giddy with the amount of Ukrainian equipment “losses” to post online.
This is what I’ve been thinking ever since I saw the now famous Ukrainian “Tank House.”
Here’s to hoping.
~~Update 6/12 8pm:
